Lianrui New Material (688300): Silicon micro-powder faucet embraces prosperity and grows 47% in 19-21

CvvaaHr

Lianrui New Material (688300): Silicon micro-powder faucet embraces prosperity and grows 47% in 19-21
Invest in logic to expand high-quality business to maximize the best product mix: The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of silicon micronized powder. It entered the science and technology board in November 2019. The investment projects include intelligent upgrade projects, silicon micronized powder base projects, and highFlow high-fill project and R & D center project. The main 杭州桑拿网 products expanded are molten silicon powder and spherical silicon powder.By comparing the profitability and proportion of different product types, we believe that the molten silicon powder business is the basic main business to ensure stable growth, and the spherical silicon powder is a high-profit accelerated growth business.Product structure, increase production and increase profit; EMC ball silicon boom recovery + CCL ball silicon open space, compound thickening 51%: Epoxy resin molding (EMC) is a traditional market for the application of spherical silicon powder, the limiting factor is the Japanese manufacturersLong-term monopoly market; Copper Clad Laminate (CCL) is an emerging market for spherical silicon powder. The limiting factor for the company’s growth is the low penetration of spherical silicon powder in the CCL field. The market is mainly covered by Japanese manufacturers.  The above-mentioned limiting factors are about to be lifted because of: 1) demand growth, the semiconductor industry can recover for 20 years, EMC as a upstream material for semiconductor packaging will also benefit, and at the same time CCL usher in a rapid growth period driven by 5G / data center / automotive electronics,To judge that the company’s downstream demand is sufficient; 2) the improvement of the supply environment, whether in the EMC or CCL market, there is a trend of domestic substitution in the downstream, which will lead to the replacement of silicon powder and also accelerate domestic substitution;Products and DQ1150 series products have been recognized by key customers.In summary, we predict that the company’s spherical silicon powder will be at 19?In 21 years, it will grow 21%, 91% and 19% respectively, with a compound growth rate of 51%.  There is still room for increase in fusion, with a compound growth rate of 33%: downstream CCL manufacturers continue to expand production to ensure that there is room for growth of molten silicon micronized powder, and the merged company’s molten silicon micronized powder product is continuously upgraded.We expect the company’s Fused Silica Powder 19?In 21 years, it will grow 8%, 34% and 32% respectively, and the compound growth rate will reach 33%.  Investment advice do we expect the company 2019?Net profit attributable to mother will be zero in 2021.74/1.23/1.60 ppm, the current market price corresponding to PE is 75X / 45X / 35X, considering the company 2019?In 2021, the compound growth rate will reach 47%, the comparable company’s estimated level is 55 times and the average value of the company’s science and technology board is 100 times. We believe that the company’s reasonable estimated level is 65 times. Based on the net profit in 2020, the current reasonable market value80 million, corresponding to the target price of 93 yuan, the first coverage given a “buy” rating.  Risk investment projects were put into production less than expected; orders were less than expected; restricted shares were lifted.